The Hurricone

COLA has created a weather graphic, nicknamed The Hurricone*, which is intended to complement the information found in the forecast cone diagrams produced by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The Hurricone is drawn with GrADS and is based on model output from NCEP's Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and advisory data from NHC. It depicts a plume of storm tracks (lines on a map that connect the locations of forecasted sea level pressure minima) as well as areas with high near-surface (10 meter) wind speeds.

Graphical elements of the Hurricone:

• A small weather symbol showing the position of the storm at the initialization time
• Individual storm tracks from the 21 ensemble members, colorized according to the forecast lead time
• The ensemble average storm track, drawn in black
• Colorized dots on each track at 24-hour intervals
• If the local 10m wind speed maximum is >=74mph, the dot is replaced by a diamond
• Colorized big asterisks showing the NHC position forecast at 24-hour intervals
• An underlay of gray-shaded areas where 10-meter wind speeds above specific thresholds were forecasted at least once during the 5-day period. The 10m wind speed thresholds are: 39 mph (category Tropical Storm), 74 mph (category Hurricane), and 58 mph (~50 knots).
• Highlighted coastal areas where a tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect
• A map backgound showing land topography
• The initialization date of the forecast and the issue date of the NHC advisory
• An explanatory key

The information in these graphics is not guaranteed to be timely, accurate, or even relevant.
For legitimate forecats, please rely on the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center.

The Hurricone examples show below are based on forecasts of Tropical Storm Matthew,
which developed in the Atlantic on September 28th 2016.

Select a Forecast Length: 5 Days 6 Days 7 Days 8 Days    Select a Date: 00z 08 Oct 2016 12z 07 Oct 2016 00z 07 Oct 2016 12z 06 Oct 2016 00z 06 Oct 2016 12z 05 Oct 2016 00z 05 Oct 2016 12z 04 Oct 2016 00z 04 Oct 2016 12z 03 Oct 2016 00z 03 Oct 2016 12z 02 Oct 2016 00z 02 Oct 2016 12z 01 Oct 2016 00z 01 Oct 2016 12z 30 Sep 2016 12z 29 Sep 2016 12z 28 Sep 2016

 

The Hurricone and this web page are still under development.
Please send your feedback and questions to Jennifer Adams (jadams21 at gmu dot edu)

 

* Not to be confused with the trademarked item HURRICONE, which is a cordless cone-shaped dolly that uses air flow to aid in the drying of a wet floor.