Tim DelSole's Refereed Publications
Trenary, L., and T. DelSole, 2022: Advancing interpretability of machine learning prediction models. Environ. Data Sci., submitted. [PDF]
He, S., X. Li, L. Trenary, B. Cash, T. DelSole, and A. Banerjee, 2021: Learning and Dynamical Models for Sub-seasonal Climate Forecasting: Comparison and Collaboration, arXiv:2110.05196. [Official Version]
DelSole, T., and M. K. Tippett, 2021: Comparing Climate Time Series: Part 3: Discriminant Aanalysis. Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., submitted. [PDF]
DelSole, T. and M. K. Tippett, 2021: A mutual information criterion with applications to canonical correlation analysis and graphical models. Stat, 10(1), e385. [PDF] [Official Version]
Trenary, L, and T. DelSole, 2021: Skillful Statistical Prediction of Sub-Seasonal Temperature by Training on Dynamical Model Data. Environ. Data Sci., submitted. [PDF]
Buchmann, P. and T. DelSole, 2021: Week 3-4 Prediction of Wintertime CONUS Temperature Using Machine Learning Techniques. Frontiers in Climate, 3:81. [PDF] [Official Version]
DelSole, T., and M. K. Tippett, 2021: Comparing Climate Time Series: Part 2: Multivariate Test. Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 7(2), 73-85. [PDF] [Official Version]
Risbey, J. S., D. T. Squire, A. S. Black, T. DelSole, C. Lepore, R. J. Matear, D. P. Monselesan, T. S. Moore, D. Richardson, A. Schepen, M. K. Tippett, and C. R Tozer, 2021. Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading. Nature Communications. 12(1):4346. [Official Version]
DelSole, T., and D. Nedza, 2021: Reconstructing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation using machine learning techniques. Atmosphere-Ocean, 1-13. [PDF] [Official Version]
DelSole, T., and M. K. Tippett, 2021: Correcting the Corrected AIC. Statistics and Probability Letters, 173:109064. [PDF] [Official Version]
Trenary, L., T. DelSole, and M. K. Tippett, 2020: Comparing Methods of Uncertainty Estimation in Optimal Fingerprinting, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL088060. [PDF] [Official Version]
DelSole, T., and M. K. Tippett, 2020: Comparing Climate Time Series: Part 1: Univariate Test. Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 159-175. [PDF] [Official Version]
Trenary, L, T. DelSole, S. J. Camargo, and M. K. Tippett, 2019: Are mid-20th century forced changes in North Atlantic hurricane potential intensity detectable? Geophys. Res. Lett., 46(6): 3378-3386. [PDF] [Official Version]
Smith, D. M., R. Eade, A. A. Scaife, L.-P. Caron, T. M. DelSole, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, N. J. Dunstone, L. Hermanson, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, W. J. Merryfield, T. Mochizuki, W. A. Muller, H. Pohlmann, S. Yeager, and X. Yang, 2019: Robust Skill of Decadal Climate Predictions. Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science., 2(1):13 [PDF] [Official Version]
Pegion, K., and co authors, 2019: The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX): A multi-model subseasaonal prediction experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 100, 2043-2060. [PDF] [Official Version]
Buckley, M. W., T. DelSole, M. S. Lozier, and L. Li, 2018: Predictability of North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and Upper Ocean Heat Content. J. Climate, 32, 3005-3023. [PDF]
Bombardi, R. J., L. Trenary, K. Pegion, B. Cash, T. DelSole, and J. L. Kinter III. Seasonal predictability of summer rainfall over South America. J. Climate, 31, 8181-8195. [PDF] [Official Version]
DelSole, T., 2018: Reconstructing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in different climate models based on sea surface temperatures. Geophys. Res. Lett., withdrawn. [PDF]
DelSole, T., L. Trenary, X. Yan, M. K. Tippett, 2018: Confidence Intervals in Optimal Fingerprinting. Climate Dynamics, Jul 2018. [Open Access]
Trenary, L., T. DelSole, M. K. Tippett, and K. Pegion, 2017: Monthly ENSO Forecast Skill and Lagged Ensemble Size, J. Adv. Model Earth Syst., 10, 1074-1086. [PDF] [Official Version]
Tippett, M. K., L. Trenary, T. DelSole, K. Pegion, and M. L'Heureux, 2017: Sources of Bias in the Monthly CFSv2 Forecast Climatology, J. Appl Meteor. Climatol., 57, 1111-1122. [PDF] [Official Version]
DelSole, T., and L. Trenary and M. K. Tippett, 2017: The Weighted Average Lagged Ensemble, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 9, 2739-2752. [PDF] [Official Version]
DelSole, T., and M. K. Tippett, 2017: Predictability in a Changing Climate. Climate Dynamics, published online. [PDF] [Official Version]
DelSole, T., 2017: Decadal Prediction: Achievements and Future Prospects. Current Climate Change Reports, 3(2): 99-111 (invited) [PDF] [Official Version]
Srivastava, A. and T. DelSole, 2017: Decadal Predictability Without Ocean Dynamics, Proc. Nat. Aca. Sci., 115, 2177-2182. [Official Version]
Trenary, L., T. DelSole, M. K. Tippett, and B. Doty, 2016: Extreme Eastern US Winter of 2015 Not Symptomatic of Climate Change., Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97: S31-S35. [PDF] [Official Version]
Tippett, M. K., M. Ranganathan, M. L'Heureux, A. G. Barnston, T. DelSole, 2016: Assessing Probabilistic Predictions of ENSO Phase and Intensity from the North American Multimodel Ensemble. Climate Dynamics, 1-22. [PDF] [Official Version]
Trenary, L., T. DelSole, M.K. Tippett, and K. Pegion, 2016: A New Method for Determining the Optimal Lagged Ensemble. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 9, 291-306. [PDF] [Official Version]
DelSole, T., L. Trenary, M. K. Tippett, and K. Pegion, 2016: Predictability of Temperature and Precipitation at 3-4 Weeks over the Contiguous United States. J. Climate, 30, 3499-3512. [PDF] [Official Version]
DelSole, T., and A. Banerjee, 2016: Statistical Seasonal Prediction Based on Regularized Regression. J. Climate, 30, 1345-1361. [PDF] [Official Version]
Yan, X., T. DelSole, and M. K. Tippett, 2016: What Surface Observations are Important for Separating the Influences of Anthropogenic Aerosols from Other Forcings? J. Climate, 29, 4165-4184. [PDF] [Official Version]
DelSole, T., X. Yan, and M. K. Tippett, 2016: Inferring Aerosol Cooling from Hydrological Sensitivity, J. Climate, 29, 6167-6178. [PDF] [Official Version]
Trenary, L., and T. DelSole, 2016: Does the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Get its Predictability from the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation?, J. Climate, 29, 5267-5280. [PDF] [Official Version]
LaJoie, E., and T. DelSole, 2016: Changes to Internal Variability in Response to Anthropogenic Forcing: A New Field Significance Test. J. Climate, 29, 5547-5560. [PDF] [Official Version]
DelSole, T., C. Monteleoni, S. McQuade, M. K. Tippett, K. Pegion, and J. Shukla, 2015: Tracking Seasonal Prediction Models, submitted to Machine Learning and Data Mining Approaches to Climate Science: Proceedings of the 5th International Workshop on Climate Informatics. [PDF]
DelSole, T., and M. K. Tippett, 2015: Forecast Comparison Based on Random Walks, Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 615-626. [PDF] [Official Version]
Trenary, L., T. DelSole, M. K. Tippett, and B. Doty, 2015: Was the Cold Eastern US Winter of 2014 Due to Increased Variability? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, S15-S19. [PDF] [Official Version]
DelSole, T., and M. K. Tippett, 2015: Laplacian Eigenfunctions for Climate Analysis, J. Climate, 28, 7420-7436.. [PDF] [Official Version]
DelSole, T., and M. K. Tippett, 2014: Comparing Forecast Skill. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 4658-4678. [PDF] [Official Version]
DelSole, T., J. Nattala, and M. K. Tippett, 2014: Skill Improvement from Increased Ensemble Size and Model Diversity. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 7331-7342. [PDF] [Official Version]
Srivastava A., and T. DelSole, 2014: Robust Forced Response in South Asian Summer Monsoon in a Future Climate. J. Climate, 27, 7849-7860. [PDF] [Official Version]
Tippett, M. K., T. DelSole, and A. G. Barnston, 2014: Reliability of Regression-Corrected Climate Forecasts. J. Climate, 27, 3393-3404. [PDF] [Official Version]
Feng, Xia, T. DelSole, and P. Houser, 2014: Comparison of Seasonal Potential Predictability of Precipitation. J. Climate, 27, 4094-4110. [PDF] [Official Version]
Jia, L, T. DelSole, and M. K. Tippett, 2014: Can Optimal Projection Improve Dynamical Model Forecasts? J. Climate, 27, 2643-2655. [PDF] [Official Version]
DelSole, T., M. K. Tippett, and L. Jia, 2014: Multi-year Prediction and Predictability. To appear in World Scientific Series on Weather and Climate. [PDF]
DelSole, T., X. Yan, P. Dirmeyer, M. Fennessy, and E. Altshuler, 2014: Changes in Seasonal Predictability Due to Global Warming. J. Climate, 27, 300-311. [PDF] [Official Version]
DelSole, T., L. Jia, and M. K. Tippett, 2013: Scale-selective ridge regression in multimodel regression. J. Climate, 26, 7957-7965. [PDF] [Official Version]
Dirmeyer, P. A., S. Kumar, M. J. Fennessy, E. L. Altshuler, T. DelSole, Z. Guo, B. A. Cash, and D. Straus, 2013: Model Estimates of Land-Driven Predictability in a Changing Climate from CCSM4. J. Climate, 26, 8495-8512. [PDF] [Official Version]
DelSole, T., A. Kumar and B. Jha, 2013: Potential Seasonal Predictability: Comparison Between Empirical and Dynamical Model Estimates. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3200-3206. [PDF] [Auxiliary Material] [Official Version]
Kumar S., P. A. Dirmeyer, V. Merwade, T. DelSole, J. M. Adams, and D. Niyogi, 2013: Land use/cover change impacts in CMIP5 climate simulations– A new methodology and 21st century challenges. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 6337-6353. [PDF] [Official Version]
Tippett, M. K., and T. DelSole, 2013: Constructed Analogues and Linear Regression. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 2519-2525. [PDF] [Official Version]
DelSole, T., L. Jia, and M. K. Tippett, 2013: Decadal Prediction of Observed and Simulated Sea Surface Temperatures. Geophys. Res. Lett, 40, 2773-2778. [PDF] [Official Version]
Feng, X., T. DelSole, and P. Houser, 2013: Comparison of Observational Estimates of Potential Seasonal Predictability. J. Geophys. Res, 118, 6002-6016. [PDF] [Official Version]
DelSole, T., and X. Feng, 2013: The “Shukla-Gutzler” Method for Estimating Potential Seasonal Predictability. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 822-831. [PDF] (AMS Copyright notice) [Official Version]
Yang, X., A. Rosati, S. Zhang, T. L. Delworth, R. G. Gudgl, R. Zhang, G. Vecchi, W. Anderson, Y.-S. Chang, T. DelSole, K. Dixon, R. Msadek, W. F. Stern, A. Wittenberg, F. Zeng, 2013: A predictable AMO-like pattern in GFDL's fully-coupled ensemble initialization and decadal forecasting system. J. Climate, 26, 650-661. [PDF] (AMS Copyright notice) [Official Version]
Jia, L, and T. DelSole, 2012: Multi-Year Predictability of Temperature and Precipitation Identified in Climate Models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, doi:10.1029/2012GL052778. [PDF]
DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2012: Climate models produce skillful predictions of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, doi:10.1029/2012GL051279. [PDF]
Guo, Z., P. A. Dirmeyer, T. DelSole, and R. D. Koster, 2012: Rebound in atmospheric Predictability and Seasonal Predictability. J. Climate, 25: 4744-4749. [PDF]
Guo, Z., P. A. Dirmeyer, and T. DelSole, 2012: Land Surface Impacts on Subseasonal and Seasonal Predictability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, doi:10.1029/2011GL049945. [PDF]
Jia, L, and T. DelSole, 2012: Optimal Determination of Time-Varying Climate Change Signals. J. Climate, 25, 7122-7137. [PDF] (AMS Copyright notice)
Feng, X., T. DelSole, and P. Houser, 2012: A Method for Estimating Potential Seasonal Predictability. Part I: Analysis of Covariance. J. Climate, 25, 5292-5308. [PDF] (AMS Copyright notice)
DelSole, T., X. Yang, and M. K. Tippett, 2012: Is Unequal Weighting Significantly Better than Equal Weighting for Multi-Model Forecasting? Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., DOI:10.1002/qj.1961. [PDF]
Yang, X., and T. DelSole, 2012: Systematic Comparison of ENSO Teleconnection Patterns Between Models and Observations. J. Climate, 25, 425-446. [PDF] (AMS Copyright notice)
Jia, L., and T. DelSole, 2011: Diagnosis of Multi-year Predictability on Continental Scales. J. Climate, 24, 5108-5124. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
DelSole, T., 2011: State and Parameter Estimation in Stochastic Dynamical Models. ECMWF Proceedings, Workshop on Representing Model Uncertainty and Error in Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction Models. [PDF]
Yilmaz, M. T., T. DelSole, and P. R. Houser, 2011: Reducing water balance residuals in land data assimilation: Ensemble filtering without perturbed observations. J. Hydrometeor., 13,, 413-420. [PDF] (AMS Copyright notice)
DelSole, T., and X. Yang, 2011: Field Significance of Regression Patterns. J. Climate, 24, 5094-5107. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
Yilmaz, M. T., T. DelSole, and P. R. Houser, 2011: Improving Land Data Assimilation Performance with a Water Budget Constraint. J. Hydrometeor., 12, 1040-1055. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
Feng, X., T. DelSole, and P. Houser, 2011: Bootstrap Estimated Seasonal Potential Predictability of Global Temperature and Precipitation. Geophys. Res. Let., 38, L07702, doi:10.1029/2010GL046511.
DelSole, T., M. K. Tippett, and J. Shukla, 2011: A Significant Component of Unforced Multidecadal Variability in the Recent Acceleration of Global Warming. J. Climate, 24, 909-926. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
P. A. Dirmeyer, T. DelSole, and M. Zhao, 2011: Limits to the Impact of Empirical Correction on Simulation of the Water Cycle,” J. Hydrometeor., 12, 147-156.
DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2010: Model Fidelity Versus Skill in Seasonal Forecasting. J. Climate, 23, 4794-4806. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
Tippett, M. K., A. G. Barnston, and T. DelSole, 2010: Comments on “Finite samples and uncertainty estimates for skill measures for seasonal prediction.” Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 1487-1493. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
Yilmaz, M. T., and T. DelSole, 2010: Predictability of Seasonal Precipitation Using Joint Probabilities. J. Hydrometeor., 11, 533-541. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
DelSole, T., and X. Yang, 2010: State and Parameter Estimation in Stochastic Dynamical Models. Physica D, 239, 1781-1788. [PDF]
Yang, X., and T. DelSole, 2009: The Diffuse Ensemble Square Root Filter, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 16, 475-486. [PDF]
Yang, X., and T. DelSole, 2009: Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter to Estimate Multiplicative Model Parameters. Tellus, 61, 601-609. [PDF]
Narapusetty, B., T. DelSole and M. K. Tippett, 2009: Optimal Estimation of the Climatological Mean. J. Climate, 22, 4845-4859. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
DelSole, T., and M. K. Tippett, 2009: Average Predictability Time. Part I: Theory. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 1172-1187. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
DelSole, T., and M. K. Tippett, 2009: Average Predictability Time. Part II: Seamless Diagnosis of Predictability on Multiple Time Scales. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 1188-1204. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
DelSole, T., M. Zhao, and P. Dirmeyer, 2009: A New Method for Exploring Coupled Land-Atmosphere Dynamics. J. Hydrometeor., 10, 1040-1050. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
DelSole, T., 2009: Challenges in Stochastic Modeling of Quasigeostrophic Turbulence. In Stochastic Physics and Climate Modeling. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
Dirmeyer, P. A., K. L. Brubaker, and T. DelSole, 2009: Import and Export of Atmospheric Water Vapor Between Nations. Journal of Hydrology, 365, 11-22. [PDF]
Monahan, A. H., and T. DelSole, 2009: Information theoretic measures of dependence, compactness, and non-Gaussianity. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 16, 57-64. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2009: Artificial Skill Due to Predictor Screening. J. Climate, 22, 331-345. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
Yang, X., T. DelSole, and H.-L. Pan, 2008: Empirical Correction of the NCEP Global Forecast System. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 5224-5233. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
Tippett, M. K., T. DelSole, S. J. Mason, A. G. Barnston, 2008: Regression-based methods for finding coupled patterns. J. Climate, 21, 4384-4398. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
DelSole, T., M. Zhao, P. A. Dirmeyer, B. P. Kirtman, 2008: Empirical correction of a coupled land-atmosphere model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 4063-4076. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
DelSole, T., and M. K. Tippett, 2008: Predictable Components and Singular Vectors. J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 1666-1678. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
DelSole, T., and M. K. Tippett, 2007: Predictability: Recent Insights from Information Theory. Rev. Geophys., 45, RG4002, doi:10.1029/2006RG000202. [PDF]
DelSole, T., 2007: A Bayesian Framework for Multimodel Regression. J. Climate, 20, 2810-2826. (AMS Copyright notice) (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
Vikhliaev, Y., P. Schopf, T. DelSole, and B. Kirtman, 2007: Finding multiple basin modes in a linear ocean model. J. Atmos. Ocean Tech., 24, 1033-1049. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
DelSole, T., 2007: Optimal Perturbations in Quasigeostrophic Turbulence. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 1350-1364. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2006: Linear Prediction of Monsoon Rainfall in Indian Subdivisions. COLA Tech. Rep. 208. [PDF]
Shukla, J., T. DelSole, M. Fennessy, J. Kinter, and D. Paolino, 2006: Climate Model Fidelity and Projections of Climate Change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L07702, doi:10.1029/2005GL025579. [PDF]
DelSole, T., 2006: Low-Frequency Variations of Surface Temperature in Observations and Simulations. J. Climate, 19, 4487-4507. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2006: Correction Note on “Linear Prediction of Indian Monsoon Rainfall.” J. Climate, 19, 3029-3030. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2006: Specification of Wintertime North Temperature. J. Climate, 19, 2691-2716. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
DelSole, T., 2005: Predictability and Information Theory. Part II: Imperfect Forecasts. J. Atmos Sci., 62, 3368-3381. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
DelSole, T., 2004: Stochastic Models of Quasigeostrophic Turbulence. Surveys in Geophys., 25 (2), 107-149. [PDF]
DelSole, T., 2004: Predictability and Information Theory. Part I: Measures of Predictability. J. Atmos Sci., 61, 2425-2440. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
DelSole, T., 2004: The Necessity of Instantaneous Optimals in Stationary Turbulence. J. Atmos Sci., 61, 1086-1091. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
Chang, P., R. Saravanan, T. DelSole, F. Wang, 2004: Predictability of Linear Coupled Systems. Part I: Theoretical Analysis. J. Climate, 17, 1474-1486. (AMS Copyright notice)
DelSole, T., and P. Chang, 2003: Predictable component analysis, canonical correlation analysis, and autoregressive models. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 409-416. (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2002: Linear Prediction of Indian Monsoon Rainfall. J. Climate, 15, 3645-3658. (COLA Technical Report 114.) (Figures and Tables printed separately.) (AMS Copyright notice) [PDF]
DelSole, T., 2001: A Theory for the Forcing and Dissipation in Stochastic Turbulence Models, J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 3762-3775.
DelSole, T., 2001: Optimally Persistent Patterns in Time-Varying Fields. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 1341-1356.
DelSole, T., 2001: A Simple Model for Transient Eddy Momentum Fluxes in the Upper Troposphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 3019-3035.
DelSole, T., 2000: A Fundamental Limitation of Markov Models. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 2158-2168.
DelSole, T., 1999: Stochastic Models of Shear Flow Turbulence with Enstrophy Transfer to Subgrid-Scales. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 2692-3703.
DelSole, T., and A. Y. Hou, 1999: Empirical Stochastic Models for the Dominant Climate Statistics of a General Circulation Model. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 3436-3456.
DelSole, T., and A. Y. Hou, 1999: Empirical Correction of a Dynamical Model. Part I: Fundamental Issues. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 2533-2545.
DelSole, T., 1997: Absolute Instability Induced by Dissipation. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 2586-2595.
DelSole, T., 1996: Can Quasigeostrophic Turbulence be Modeled Stochastically? J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 1617-1633.
DelSole, T., and B. F. Farrell, 1996: The Quasilinear Equilibration of a Thermally Maintained, Stochastically Excited Jet in a Quasigeostrophic Model. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 1782-1797.
DelSole, T., and B. F. Farrell, 1995: A Stochastically Excited Linear System as a Model for Quasigeostrophic Turbulence: Analytic Results for One- and Two-Layer Fluids. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 2531-2537.
DelSole, T., and B. F. Farrell, 1994: Nonlinear Equilibration of Localized Instabilities on a Baroclinic Jet. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 2270-2284.
Bernholc, J., A. Antonelli, T. M. DelSole, Y. Bar-Yam, and S. T. Pantelides, 1988: Mechanisms of Self-Diffusion in Diamond. Phys. Rev. Let., 61, 2689-2692.