Summary of Forecasts

For ENSO and Other SST

Dynamic Models: Most of the dynamic models (SIO, LDEO, IRD intermediate model, COLA coupled, NCEP) are predicting some degree of warming for the tropical eastern Pacific over the next 2-3 seasons. However, there are some models (neural-dynamical hybrid, COLA anomaly coupled and UCLA) that predict near normal or even cooling over the next 2-3 seasons. The consensus among the models that predict warming is that there will be a moderate El Niño during the boreal winter of 2002-03.

Statistical Models: The consensus among the statistical models is that there will be weak warm conditions in the tropical eastern Pacific for the next 2-3 seasons (constructed analogue, NCEP Markov model, neural-network, non-linear CCA). Similar to the dynamic models there are forecasts of near normal (LIM, SSA-MEM). The consensus among the statistical model is calls for a somewhat weaker El Niño than the dynamic models.