Shukla Symposium

on Predictability in the Midst of Chaos

A retrospective examination of the science of climate predictability

and a discussion of prospects for future research directions.


23-24 April 2015

Rockville, Maryland

Hilton Washington, DC / Rockville Hotel and Executive Meeting Center


Sponsored by the Institute of Global Environment and Society

Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration



Thursday, 23 April 2015:

7:30 a.m.


8:30 a.m.

Jim Kinter (COLA/Mason): Introductions and welcoming remarks

Session 1: Predictability and Climate Dynamics (Chair: Mike Wallace)

8:45 a.m.

Sir Brian Hoskins (Imperial College): Week 1 Predictability in the Tropics from Equatorial Waves?

9:05 a.m.

Dennis Hartmann (U. Washington): Pacific Ocean SST and the Winter of 2014

9:25 a.m.

Grant Branstator (NCAR): Long-Lasting Mid-latitude Responses to Short-Lived

Tropical Heating Events

9:45 a.m.

Tim DelSole (COLA/Mason): Multi-year Predictability

10:05 a.m.

Bin Wang (U. Hawaii): Decadal Predictability of the Land Monsoon Rainfall in the Northern Hemisphere

10:25 a.m.


Session 2: Reanalysis, Climate Change and Climate Diagnostics (Chair: David Straus)

11:00 a.m.

Eugenia Kalnay (U. Maryland): Shukla, My Life-Long Mentor

11:20 a.m.

Lennart Bengtsson (U. Reading): How Well Can We Predict Climate Change - What Have We Learned from Several Decades of Progress in Numerical Weather Prediction?

11:30 a.m.

Mike Wallace (U. Washington): Time Variations in Tropical Rainfall: Three Perspectives

12:00 p.m.

Kevin Trenberth (NCAR): Reanalyses Continue to Get Better and are Useful for Diagnosing Feedbacks: a Case Study of Radiation vs. Temperatures

12:20 p.m.


1:30 p.m.


Louis Uccellini (National Weather Service): Evolving the NWS to Build a Weather-Ready Nation

Session 3: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (Chair: Ed Sarachik)

2:00 p.m.

Session convenes

2:10 p.m.

Kathy Pegion (COLA/Mason): Subseasonal Predictability and Prediction

2:30 p.m.

Bohua Huang (COLA/Mason): Multiple Analysis Initialization of Ocean on Seasonal Prediction of ENSO and Asian Monsoon

2:50 p.m.

Cristiana Stan (COLA/Mason): Super-Parameterization as a Tool for Sub-Seasonal Prediction

3:10 p.m.

Ben Kirtman (U. Miami): NMME: Shukla's Vision for Seasonal Prediction (Slowly) Realized

3:30 p.m.






Session 4: Next Generation Models (Chair: Ed Schneider)

4:00 p.m.

Dame Julia Slingo (Met Office): From Global to Local, and From Weather and Climate to Environmental Risks and Impacts

4:20 p.m.

Jim Hurrell (NCAR): Strategic Priorities for NCAR: Development of Multi-Scale Simulation and Prediction Systems

4:40 p.m.

V. Ramaswamy (GFDL): Anthropogenic Species and Climate: Diagnosing the Past and Modeling of the 21st Century Climate Change

5:00 p.m.

Tim Palmer (U. Oxford): Greater Accuracy with Less Precision - A New Approach to Weather and Climate Prediction

5:20 p.m.

David Randall (Colorado State U.): Cumulus Predictability

5:40 p.m.


6:00 p.m.

Icebreaker reception

7:00 p.m.




Friday, 24 April 2015:

7:30 a.m.



8:30 a.m.

Scientific and Institutional Challenges in Climate Research (Moderator: Kinter)


PANELISTS (Cane, Fung, Goddard, Held, Philander, Slingo)

10:10 a.m.


Session 5: Asian Monsoon (Chair: Krishnamurthy)

10:40 a.m.

Peter Webster (Georgia Tech): 70 Years of Monsoon Research and Shukla

11:00 a.m.

Anjuli Bamzai (NSF): Our Evolving Understanding of the Snow-Monsoon Relationship

11:20 a.m.

Bhupen Goswami (IISER): Beyond ENSO: Exploring New Sources of Monsoon Predictability

11:40 a.m.

Antonio Navarra (CMCC): Is Climate Change Finished?

12:00 noon


Session 6: Land-Biosphere-Atmosphere Interaction (Chair: Sellers)

1:30 p.m.

Carlos Nobre (Ministry of Science, Technology & Innovation of Brazil): The Future of the Amazon Forest

1:50 p.m.

Paul Dirmeyer (COLA/Mason): Stranger in a Strange Land Model

2:10 p.m.

David Gutzler (U. New Mexico): The Search for Seasonal Prediction Skill for the North American Monsoon

2:30 p.m.

Inez Fung (UC Berkeley): Leaky Buckets

2:50 p.m.

Robert Dickinson (U. Texas): Dynamic Mechanisms for Land to Suppress or Promote Precipitation

3:10 p.m.

Closing remarks

3:30 p.m.