Shukla Symposium

on Predictability in the Midst of Chaos

A retrospective examination of the science of climate predictability

and a discussion of prospects for future research directions.

23-24 April 2015

Rockville, Maryland

Hilton Washington, DC / Rockville Hotel and Executive Meeting Center

http://cola.gmu.edu/symposium/

Sponsored by the Institute of Global Environment and Society

Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Program

Thursday, 23 April 2015:

7:30 a.m.	REGISTRATION AND BREAKFAST
8:30 a.m.	Jim Kinter (COLA/Mason): Introductions and welcoming remarks
Session 1: Predictability and Climate Dynamics (Chair: Mike Wallace)
8:45 a.m.	Sir Brian Hoskins (Imperial College): Week 1 Predictability in the Tropics from Equatorial Waves?
9:05 a.m.	Dennis Hartmann (U. Washington): Pacific Ocean SST and the Winter of 2014
9:25 a.m.	Grant Branstator (NCAR): Long-Lasting Mid-latitude Responses to Short-Lived Tropical Heating Events
9:45 a.m.	Tim DelSole (COLA/Mason): Multi-year Predictability
10:05 a.m.	Bin Wang (U. Hawaii): Decadal Predictability of the Land Monsoon Rainfall in the Northern Hemisphere
10:25 a.m.	REFRESHMENTS
Session 2: Reanalysis, Climate Change and Climate Diagnostics (Chair: David Straus)
11:00 a.m.	Eugenia Kalnay (U. Maryland): Shukla, My Life-Long Mentor
11:20 a.m.	Lennart Bengtsson (U. Reading): How Well Can We Predict Climate Change - What Have We Learned from Several Decades of Progress in Numerical Weather Prediction?
11:30 a.m.	Mike Wallace (U. Washington): Time Variations in Tropical Rainfall: Three Perspectives
12:00 p.m.	Kevin Trenberth (NCAR): Reanalyses Continue to Get Better and are Useful for Diagnosing Feedbacks: a Case Study of Radiation vs. Temperatures
12:20 p.m.	LUNCH
1:30 p.m. Keynote	Louis Uccellini (National Weather Service): Evolving the NWS to Build a Weather-Ready Nation
Session 3: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (Chair: Ed Sarachik)
2:00 p.m.	Session convenes
2:10 p.m.	Kathy Pegion (COLA/Mason): Subseasonal Predictability and Prediction
2:30 p.m.	Bohua Huang (COLA/Mason): Multiple Analysis Initialization of Ocean on Seasonal Prediction of ENSO and Asian Monsoon
2:50 p.m.	Cristiana Stan (COLA/Mason): Super-Parameterization as a Tool for Sub-Seasonal Prediction
3:10 p.m.	Ben Kirtman (U. Miami): NMME: Shukla's Vision for Seasonal Prediction (Slowly) Realized
3:30 p.m.	REFRESHMENTS
Session 4: Next Generation Models (Chair: Ed Schneider)
4:00 p.m.	Dame Julia Slingo (Met Office): From Global to Local, and From Weather and Climate to Environmental Risks and Impacts
4:20 p.m.	Jim Hurrell (NCAR): Strategic Priorities for NCAR: Development of Multi-Scale Simulation and Prediction Systems
4:40 p.m.	V. Ramaswamy (GFDL): Anthropogenic Species and Climate: Diagnosing the Past and Modeling of the 21st Century Climate Change
5:00 p.m.	Tim Palmer (U. Oxford): Greater Accuracy with Less Precision - A New Approach to Weather and Climate Prediction
5:20 p.m.	David Randall (Colorado State U.): Cumulus Predictability
5:40 p.m.	Adjourn
6:00 p.m.	Icebreaker reception
7:00 p.m.	Banquet

Friday, 24 April 2015:

7:30 a.m.	BREAKFAST
PANEL DISCUSSION
8:30 a.m.	Scientific and Institutional Challenges in Climate Research (Moderator: Kinter)
	PANELISTS (Cane, Fung, Goddard, Held, Philander, Slingo)
10:10 a.m.	REFRESHMENTS
Session 5: Asian Monsoon (Chair: Krishnamurthy)
10:40 a.m.	Peter Webster (Georgia Tech): 70 Years of Monsoon Research and Shukla
11:00 a.m.	Anjuli Bamzai (NSF): Our Evolving Understanding of the Snow-Monsoon Relationship
11:20 a.m.	Bhupen Goswami (IISER): Beyond ENSO: Exploring New Sources of Monsoon Predictability
11:40 a.m.	Antonio Navarra (CMCC): Is Climate Change Finished?
12:00 noon	LUNCH
Session 6: Land-Biosphere-Atmosphere Interaction (Chair: Sellers)
1:30 p.m.	Carlos Nobre (Ministry of Science, Technology & Innovation of Brazil): The Future of the Amazon Forest
1:50 p.m.	Paul Dirmeyer (COLA/Mason): Stranger in a Strange Land Model
2:10 p.m.	David Gutzler (U. New Mexico): The Search for Seasonal Prediction Skill for the North American Monsoon
2:30 p.m.	Inez Fung (UC Berkeley): Leaky Buckets
2:50 p.m.	Robert Dickinson (U. Texas): Dynamic Mechanisms for Land to Suppress or Promote Precipitation
3:10 p.m.	Closing remarks
3:30 p.m.	ADJOURN