Our Mission
- COLA explores and quantifies the predictability of Earth’s climate on monthly to decadal timescales using state-of-the-art coupled models of the global atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and cryosphere.
- We apply climate predictability science to deliver societally beneficial predictions.
Understanding Climate Predictability
How predictable is Earth’s climate? Despite atmospheric complexity and chaos, COLA scientists have demonstrated that certain climate aspects can be accurately forecast from one month to several decades ahead.
Using cutting-edge computer models and advanced statistical techniques, we simulate the coupled Earth system across timescales—from the recent past through the distant past to future decades of the Anthropocene. Our goal: enhance climate prediction to provide real-world solutions for critical challenges posed by climate variability and change.
Research Impact
Monsoon Prediction
In south and east Asia, where hundreds of millions depend on seasonal rainfall, COLA research advances prediction of monsoon timing and intensity, helping communities prepare for flooding or mitigate water and food insecurity.
Climate Change Assessment
As atmospheric composition and land surfaces change through fossil fuel combustion and deforestation, we develop models and tools to assess impacts on human health, infrastructure, property, and ecosystems.
Prediction and Predictability
The Earth system models are used both to understand predictability and make real predictions. The ultimate goal is to enhance our ability to predict the climate and assess how our changing climate will impact communities. This work is crucial for predicting and preparing for the potential impacts on human health, infrastructure, property, and ecosystems.
COLA’s research expands understanding of climate variability, predictability, and change while providing practical, actionable insights to help communities worldwide adapt to and mitigate the effects of our changing climate—work crucial for shaping a more resilient planetary future.