2017
Huang, B., et al., 2015: Reforecasting the ENSO Events in the Past 57 Years (1958-2014). J. Climate, 47, 7669-7693, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0642.1.
2016
Motesharrei, S., et. al., 2016: Modeling Sustainability: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems. National Science Review, Oxford Journals.
Zhu, J., and J. Shukla, 2016: Estimation of weather noise in coupled ocean-atmosphere systems using initialized simulations. J. Climate, 29, 5675-5688, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0737.1
2015
DelSole, T., et al., 2015: Tracking Seasonal Prediction Models. 5th International Workshop on Climate Informatics September 2015.
2013
Zhu, J., and J. Shukla 2013: The role of
air-sea coupling in seasonal prediction of Asian-Pacific summer monsoon
rainfall. J. Climate, 26, 5689-5697,
doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00190.1.
2012
DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2012: Climate models
produce skillful predictions of Indian summer monsoon
Krishnamurthy,
V., and J. Shukla, 2012: Predictability of the Indian monsoon in coupled
general
2011
DelSole, T., M. Tippett, and
J. Shukla, 2011: A Significant Component of Unforced Multidecadal Variability
in the Recent Acceleration of Global Warming. Journal of Climate, 24, 909-926.
Lee,
S.-S., J.-Yi Li, B. Wang, K.-J. Ha, F.-F. Jin, D. M. Straus, and J. Shukla,
2011: Interdecadal changes
Pan, X., B. Huang, and J.
Shukla, 2011: Sensitivity of the Tropical Pacific Seasonal Cycle and ENSO to
Changes in Mean State Induced by a Surface Heat Flux Adjustment in CCSM3. Climate Dynamics, 37, 325-341, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0923-y.
2010
Brunet, G., M. Shapiro, B. Hoskins, M. Moncrieff, R. Dole, G.N. Kiladis, B. Kirtman, A. Lorenc, B. Mills, R. Morss, S. Polavarapu, D. Rogers, J. Schaake, and J. Shukla, 2010: Collaboration of the Weather and Climate Communities to Advance Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 91, 1397-1406.
DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2010: Model Fidelity Versus Skill in Seasonal Forecasting. Journal of Climate, 23, 4794-4806.
Feudale, L., and J. Shukla, 2010: Influence of sea surface temperature on the European heat wave of 2003 summer. Part I: an observational study. Climate Dynamics, Online First.
Feudale, L., and J. Shukla, 2010: Influence of sea surface temperature on the European heat wave of 2003 summer. Part II: a modeling study. Climate Dynamics, Online First.
Lee, J., B. Wang, I.-S. Kang, J. Shukla, A. Kumar, J.-S. Kug, J.K.E. Schemm, J.-J. Luo, T. Yamagata, X. Fu, O. Alves, B. Stern, T. Rosati, and C.-K. Park, 2010: How are seasonal prediction skills related to modelsÕ performance on mean state and annual cycle? Climate Dynamics, 35, 267-283.
Pan, X., B. Huang, and J. Shukla, 2010: Sensitivity of the Tropical Pacific Seasonal Cycle and ENSO to Changes in Mean State Induced by a Surface Heat Flux Adjustment in CCSM3. Climate Dynamics, Online First.
Shapiro, M., J. Shukla, et al, 2010: An Earth-System Prediction Initiative for the 21st Century, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 91, 1377-1388.
Shukla, J., T.N. Palmer, R. Hagedorn, B. Hoskins, J. Kinter, J. Marotzke, M. Miller, and J. Slingo, 2010: Towards a New Generation of World Climate Research and Computing Facilities. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 91, 1407-1412.
2009
DelSole, T., and J. Shukla,
2009: Artificial
Skill Due to Predictor Screening. Journal of Climate, 22, 331-345.
Shukla, J., R. Hagedorn, B. Hoskins, J. Kinter, J. Marotzke,
M. Miller, T.N. Palmer, and J. Slingo, 2009: Revolution
in climate Prediction is Both Necessary and Possible: A Declaration at the
World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction. Bulletin of the Amer.
Meteo. Soc., 2 175-178.
World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction, Reading,
UK, 6-9 May 2008, Workshop
Report (January 2009). WMO/TD-No. 1468.
2008
Huang, Bohua, and J. Shukla, 2008: Interannual
variability of the South Indian Ocean in observations and a coupled model.
Indian Journal of Marine Sciences
37, 13-34.
Jin, E. K., J. L. Kinter III,
B. Wang, C.-K. Park, I.-S. Kang, B. Kirtman, J.-S. Kug, A. Kumar, J.-J. Luo,
J. Schemm, J. Shukla and T. Yamagata, 2008: Current
status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Climate
Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-008-0397-3.
Palmer, T.N., J. Shukla. ÒAdvances
in Modelling and Seamless Prediction.Ó WCRP Accomplishment Report 2007-2008.
pp.7-13.
Shukla, J., Daniel Schaffer. ÒA
New Climate for Change.Ó TWAS Newsletter
Volume 20, No. 1 (2008). pp 11 - 18.
Wang, B., J.-Y. Lee, J. Shukla, I.-S. Kang, C.-K Park, A. Kumar, B. Kirtman, B. Wang, E. K. Jin, and
co-authors, 2008: Advance
and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of APCC/CliPAS 14-Model
Ensemble Retrospective Seasonal Prediction (1980-2004). Climate Dynamics,
DOI 10.1007/s00382-008-0460-0.
2007
Feudale, L. and J. Shukla, ÒRole
of Mediterranean SST in enhancing the European heat wave of summer 2003,Ó
Geophysical Research Letters,
34:L03811, doi:10.1029/2006GL027991, (2007).
Huang, B. and J. Shukla, ÒMechanisms
for the Interannual Variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean. Part I: The
Role of Remote Forcing from the Tropical Pacific,Ó Journal of Climate 20 (2007): 2917-2936.
Huang, B. and J. Shukla, ÒMechanisms
for the Interannual Variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean. Part II: Regional
Processes,Ó Journal of Climate 20 (2007): 2937-2960.
Krishnamurthy, V. and J. Shukla, ÒIntraseasonal
and Seasonally Persisting Patterns of Indian Monsoon Rainfall,Ó Journal
of Climate 20 (2007):
3-20.
Randall, D., R. Wood, S. Bony, R. Coleman,
T. Fichefet, J. Fyfe, V. Kattsov, A. Pittman, J. Shukla, J. Srinivasan, R.
Stouffer, A. Sumi, and K. Taylor, ÒClimate
Models and Their Evaluation.Ó Chapter 8 of IPCC Report, "Climate Change
2007, The Physical Science Basis". (2007): 589-662.
Shukla, J. ÒMonsoon
Mysteries.Ó Science 318 (2007): 204 Ð 205.
Wang, B., J-Y Lee, I-S Kang, J. Shukla, S.N.
Hameed, C-K Park. Ò
Coupled Predictability of Seasonal Tropical Precipitation.Ó CLIVAR
Exchanges 12 (2007): 17-18.
Wang, B., J.-Y Lee, I-S Kang, J. Shukla,
J-S Kug, A. Kumar, J. Schemm, J-J Luo, T. Yamagata, and C-K Park. ÒHow
accurately do coupled climate models predict the leading modes of Asian-Australian
monsoon interannual variability?Ó Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-007-0310-5
(2007).
2006
DelSole, T. and J. Shukla, ÒCorrection
Note on ÒLinear Prediction of Monsoon Rainfall for Indian Subdivisions.Ó
COLA Technical Report 207 (2006):
8pp.
DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, ÒLinear
Prediction of Monsoon Rainfall for Indian Subdivisions.Ó COLA Technical
Report 208 (2006): 19 pp.
DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, ÒSpecification
of Wintertime North American Surface Temperature.Ó Journal of Climate 19 (2006): 2691-2716.
Huang, B., J. Shukla, ÒInterannual
SST Variability in the Southern Subtropical and Extra-tropical Ocean.Ó
COLA Technical Report 223 (2006): 20 pp.
Krishnamurthy, V., and J. Shukla, ÒSeasonal
Persistence and Propagation of Intraseasonal Patterns over the Indian Monsoon
Region.Ó COLA Technical Report
206 (2006): 46 pp.
Shukla, J., T. DelSole, M. Fennessy, J. Kinter, and D.
Paolino, ÒClimate
Model Fidelity and Projections of Climate Change.Ó Geophysical Research
Letters 33 (2006): doi:10.1029-2005GL025579.
Shukla, J.
and J. L. Kinter III, ÒPredictability
of seasonal climate variations: A pedagogical review.Ó
Predictability of Weather and Climate, T. Palmer and R. Hagedorn,
eds.: Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, p. 306-341.
2005
DelSole, T., J. Shukla, ÒSpecification
of Wintertime North American Surface Temperature.Ó COLA Technical Report 179 (2005): 70pp.
Huang, B., and J. Shukla, ÒOcean-atmosphere
interactions in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean.Ó Journal
of Climate 18 (2005): 1652-1672.
Kang, I.-S. and J. Shukla, ÒDynamical
seasonal prediction and predictability of monsoon.Ó The Asian Monsoon (B. Wang, ed.): Chichester, UK: Praxis Publishers
Ltd., p. 585-612.
Krishnamurthy, V., and J. Shukla, ÒIntraseasonal
and Seasonally Persisting Patterns of Indian Monsoon Rainfall. Cola
Technical Report 188 (2005): 42
pp.
Manganello, J., and J. Shukla, ÒThe
Influence of Sea surface Temperature Anomalies on Low-Frequency Variability
of the North Atlantic Oscillation.Ó COLA Technical Report 199 (2005): 65 pp.
Straus, D., and J. Shukla, ÒThe
Known, the Unknown and the Unknowable in the Predictability of Weather.Ó
COLA Technical Report 175 (2005): 22pp.
Wang, B., Q. Ding, X. Fu, I.-S. Kang, K. Jin, J. Shukla
and F. Doblas-Reyes, ÒFundamental
challenge in simulation and prediction of summer monsoon rainfall.Ó Geophysical
Research Letters 32 (2005): L15711, doi: 10.1029/2005GL022734.
2004
Huang, Bohua, Paul Schopf, J. Shukla. ÒIntrinsic
Ocean-Atmosphere Variability of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean.Ó Journal
of Climate 17 (2004): 2058-2077
2003
Huang, B., P. Schopf, and J. Shukla, ÒCoupled Ocean-Atmosphere Variability in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean.Ó COLA Technical Report 135 (2003): 57 pp.
Straus, D., D. Paolino, J. Shukla, S. Schubert, M. Suarez, P. Pegion, and A. Kumar, ÒPredictability of the Seasonal Mean Atmospheric Circulation During Autumn, Winter and Spring.Ó Journal of Climate 16 (2003): 3629-3649.
2002
Altshuler, Eric, M. Fennessy, J. Shukla, H. Juang, E.
Rogers, K. Mitchell, and M. Kanamitsu, ÒSeasonal
simulations over North America with a GCM and three regional models.Ó
COLA Technical Report March, 2002, 60pp.
Del Sole, T., and J. Shukla,
2002:
Linear prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall. Journal of Climate, 15,
3645-3658.
Huang, B., P. Schopf and J. Shukla, 2002:
Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability in the tropical Atlantic. CLIVAR
Exchanges, 7 (No. 3/4) 24-27.
Kang, I.-S., K. Jin, K.-M. Lau, J. Shukla, V. Krishnamurthy,
and coauthors, 2002a: Intercomparison
of atmospheric GCM simulated anomalies associated with the 1997-98 El Ni–o
event. Journal of Climate, 15, 2791-2805.
Kang, I.-S., K. Jin, B. Wang, K.-M. Lau, J. Shukla, V.
Krishnamurthy, and coauthors, 2002b: Intercomparison
of the climatological variations of Asian summer monsoon precipitation simulated
by 10 GCMs. Climate Dynamics, 19, 383-395.
Kirtman, B. P., and J. Shukla,
2002: Interactive
coupled ensemble: A new coupling strategy for CGCMs. Geophysical. Research Letters,
29, 1367, doi:10.1029/2002GLO14834.
Straus, D., D. Paolino, J. Shukla, S. Shubert, M. Suarex,
A. Kumar, and P. Pegion, ÒPredictability
of the Seasonal Mean Atmospheric Circulation During Autumn, Winter, and Spring.Ó
COLA Technical Report (2002):
51pp.
Straus, D. M., and J. Shukla, 2002: ÒDoes
ENSO force the PNA?Ó Journal of Climate,
15, 2340 - 2358.
2001
Blackmon, M., É, J. Shukla, É, E. K. Schneider, and coauthors,
2001: The
Community Climate System Model. Bulletin of the American Meteorological
Society, 82, 2357-2376.
Kirtman, B. P., J. Shukla,
M. Balmaseda, N. Graham, C. Penland, Y. Xue, S. Zebiak, 2001c: Current
Krishnamurthy,
V., and J. Shukla, 2001: Observed
and model simulated interannual variability of the
Indian monsoon. Mausam, 52, 133-150.
Shukla,
J. (ed.), 2001: Dynamics
of Large-Scale Atmospheric and Oceanic Processes: Selected Papers of
2000
Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 2000:Seasonal
Fennessy, M., J. Shukla, ÒSeasonal
prediction over North America with a regional model nested in a global model.Ó
Journal of Climate 13 (2000): 2605-2627.
Kirtman, B. P., and J. Shukla, 2000: Influence
of the Indian Summer Monsoon on ENSO.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 126, 213-239.
Krishnamurthy, V. and J. Shukla, 2000:
Intraseasonal and interannual variability of rainfall over India. Journal of Climate, 13, 4366-4377.
Reale, O. and J. Shukla, 2000: Modeling
the effects of vegetation on Mediterranean climate during the Roman classical
period. Part II: Model simulation. Global
and Planetary Change, 25, 185-214.
Shukla, J., D. A. Paolino, D. M. Straus, D. DeWitt, M.
Fennessy, J. L. Kinter, L. Marx and R. Mo, 2000: Dynamical
Seasonal Predictions with the COLA Atmospheric Model. Quarterly Journal
of the Royal Meteorological Society,126, 2265-2291.
Shukla, J., J. Anderson, D. Baumhefner, C. Brankovic,
Y. Chang, E. Kalnay, L. Marx, T. Palmer, D. A. Paolino, J. Ploshay, S. Schubert,
D. M. Straus, M. Suarez, J. Tribbia, 2000: Dynamical
Seasonal Prediction, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
81, 2593-2606.
Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 2000: Distinguishing
between the SST-forced variability and internal variability in mid-latitudes:
Analysis of observations and GCM simulations. Quarterly Journal of
the Royal Meteorological Society,126, 2323-2350.
1999
Bamzai, A. S., and J. Shukla, 1999: Relation
between Eurasian Snow Cover, Snow Depth, and the Indian Summer Monsoon: An
Observational Study. Journal of Climate, 12, 3117-3132.
Fennessy, M. J., and J. Shukla,
1999:
Impact of Initial Soil Wetness on Seasonal Atmospheric Prediction. Journal
of Climate, 12, 3167-3180.
Schneider, E. K., B. Huang, D. G. DeWitt, J. L. Kinter, B. P. Kirtman,
and J. Shukla, 1999:
Ocean Data Assimilation Initialization and Prediction of ENSO with a Coupled
GCM. Monthly Weather Review, 127, 1187-1207.
Shukla, J., J. L. Kinter, E. K. Schneider, D. M. Straus,
1999: Chapter 3:
Modelling of the Climate System. Climate Change: an integrated perspective.
Kluwer Academic Publishers, Editors: P. Mertens and J. Rotmans,
51-104.
1998
Fennessy, M., and J. Shukla, ÒSeasonal
Prediction Experiments with a Regional Model Nested in a Global Model.Ó
COLA Technical Report 63 (1998): 52 pp.
Shukla, J., 1998:
Predictability in the Midst of Chaos: A Scientific Basis for Climate Forecasting.
Science, 282, 728-731.
Webster, P.J., V.O. Magana, T.N. Palmer, J. Shukla, R.A.
Tomas, M. Yanai, and T. Yasunari, 1998: The
monsoon: Processes, predictability, and prediction. Journal of Geophysical
Research, 103, 14451-14510.
Xue, Y. and J. Shukla, ÒModel
Simulation of the Influence of Global SST Anomalies on the Sahel Rainfall.Ó Monthly Weather Review 126 (1998):
2782-2792.
1997
Huang, B., and J. Shukla, 1997a: An
examination of AGCM simulated surface wind stress and low level winds over
the tropical Pacific Ocean. Monthly Weather Review, 125, 985-998.
Huang, B., and J. Shukla, 1997b: Characteristics
of interannual and decadal variability in a general circulation model of the
tropical Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Physical Oceanography., 27,
1693-1712.
Kinter, J., D. DeWitt, P. Dirmeyer, M. Fennessy, B. Kirtman,
L. Marx, E. Schneider, J. Shukla and D. Straus, ÒThe
COLA Atmosphere-Biosphere General Circulation Model, Volume I: Formulation.Ó
COLA Technical Report 51 (1997) 46 pp.
Kirtman, B.P., J. Shukla, B. Huang, Z. Zhu and E.K. Schneider,
1997: Multiseasonal
predictions with a coupled tropical ocean-global atmosphere system. Monthly
Weather Review, 125, 789-808.
Schneider, E.K., J. Carton, B. Giese, B. Huang, B.P.
Kirtman, J. Shukla, and Z. Zhu, ÒAnnual
cycle and ENSO in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation modelÓ
Monthly Weather Review 125 (1997): 680-702.
Shukla, J., D. Paolino, B. Kirtman, D. DeWitt, P. Dirmeyer,
B. Doty, M. Fennessy, B. Huang, J. Kinter, L. Marx, E. Schneider, D. Straus
and Z. Zhu, ÒA
Forecast of Precipitation and Surface Air Temperature in North America for
Winter (JFM).Ó COLA Technical Report 50 (1997): 14 pp.
Straus, D.M., and J. Shukla, 1997: Variations
of midlatitude transient dynamics associated with ENSO. Journal of
Atmospheric Science, 54, 777-790.
1996
Dirmeyer, P.A., and J. Shukla, 1996: The
effect on regional and global climate of expansion of the worldÕs deserts.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 122, 530, 451-482.
Huang, B. and J. Shukla, 1996: A
comparison of two surface wind analyses over the tropical Atlantic during
1980-87. Journal of Climate, 9, 906-927.
Nobre. P. and J. Shukla, 1996: Variations
of sea surface temperature, wind stress and rainfall over the tropical Atlantic
and South America. Journal of Climate, 9, 2464-2479.
Shukla, J., and B. Kirtman, ÒPredictability
and Error Growth in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model.Ó COLA Technical
Report 24 (1996): 11pp.
Xue, Y. and J. Shukla, 1996:
The influence of land surface properties on Sahel climate.
PART II: Afforestation. Journal of Climate, 9, 3260-3275.
1995
Huang, B., J.A. Carton and J. Shukla, 1995: A
numerical simulation of the variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, 1980-88.
Journal of Physical Oceanography, 25, 835-854.
Kirtman, B., J Shukla, B. Huang, Z. Zhu, and E. Schneider
ÒMultiseasonal
Predictions with a Coupled Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere System.Ó COLA
Technical Report 15 (1995): 59 pp.
Paolino, D. A., Q. Yang, B. Doty, J. Kinter, J. Shukla,
D. Straus, 1995:
A pilot reanalysis project at COLA. Bulletin of the American Meteorological
Society, 76, 697-710.
Schneider, E.K., B. Huang, and J. Shukla, 1995: Ocean
Wave Dynamics of El Ni–o. Journal of Climate, 8, 2415-2439.
Shukla, J. 1995:
On the initiation and persistence of the Sahel drought. Natural
Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales, National Academy
Press, Washington, D.C., 44-48.
Vernekar, A., J. Zhou and J. Shukla, 1995: The
effect of Eurasian snow cover on Indian monsoon. Journal
of Climate, 8, 248-266.
1994
Dirmeyer, P. A. and J. Shukla, 1994: Albedo
as a modulator of climate response to tropical deforestation. Journal
of Geophysical. Research, 99, 923-935.
Dirmeyer, P., and J. Shukla ÒThe
Effect on Climate of Doubling Deserts.Ó COLA Technical Report 3
(1994): 61 pp.
Dirmeyer, P., and J. Shukla ÒThe
Response of the General Circulation to Deforestation in the Tropics.Ó
Proc. 5th Symposium on Global Change (1994): 131-134.
Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1994: GCM
Simulations of active and break monsoon periods.
Proc. MONEG International Conference on Monsoon Variability and Prediction,
Trieste, Italy, 9-13 May, 1994.
Fennessy, M. J., J. L. Kinter III,
B. Kirtman, L. Marx., S. Nigam, E. Schneider, J. Shukla., D. Straus. A. Vernekar, Y. Xue, and J. Zhou, 1994: The
simulated Asian monsoon: A GCM sensitivity study. J. Climate, 7, 33-43.
Fennessy, M., J Kinter, L. Marx, E. Schneider, P.J. Sellers,
and J. Shukla, Ò GCM
Simulations of the Life Cycles of the 1988 US Drought and Heat wave.Ó
COLA Technical Report 6 (1994): 68 pp.
Shukla, J., M. Fennessy, ÒSimulation
and predictability of monsoons.Ó Proc. MONEG International Conference
on Monsoon Variability and Prediction, Trieste, Italy, 9-13 May, 1994, pp
567-575.
Yang, R., M. J. Fennessy and J. Shukla, 1994: The
influence of initial soil wetness on medium range surface weather forecasts,
Monthly Weather Review, 122, 471-485.
Yang, R., J. Shukla and P. J. Sellers, 1994: The
influence of changes in vegetation type on the surface energy budget.
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 11, 139-161.
1993
Dirmeyer, P. A. and J. Shukla, 1993: Observational
and Modeling Studies of the Influence of Soil Moisture Anomalies on Atmospheric
Circulation (Review). Prediction
of Interannual Climate Variations. NATO ASI Series I: Global Environmental
Change, Vol. 6, Editor: J. Shukla, 1-24.
Fennessy, M.J., J.L. Kinter III, L. Marx, P. Sellers
and J. Shukla, 1993: Influence of
initial soil wetness on GCM simulation of the 1988 U.S. drought and heat wave.
Conference on Hydroclimatology (Anaheim, CA, 17-22 January 1993).
Goswami, B. N. and J. Shukla, 1993: Aperiodic
variability in the Cane-Zebick model: A diagnostic study. Journal
of Climate, 5, 628-638.
Robinson, A.R., C.J. Garrett, P. Malanotte-Rizzoli, S.
Manage, S.G. Philander, N. Pinardi, W. Roether, F.A. Schott and J. Shukla,
1993: Mediterranean
and Global Ocean and Climate Dynamics. EOS Transactions, American
Geophysical Union, Vol. 74, No. 44, 506-507.
Shukla, J. 1993:
Predictability of short-term climate variations. Prediction of Interannual
Climate Variations. NATO
ASI Series I: Global Environmental
Change, Vol. 6, Editor: J. Shukla,
217-232.
Vernekar, A., J. Zhou and J. Shukla, 1993: The
effect of Eurasian spring snow cover on Indian summer monsoon. WCRP-80,
WMO/TD-No. 546, 69-73.
Xue, Y. and J. Shukla, 1993:
The influence
of land surface properties on Sahel climate. Part I:
Desertification. Journal of Climate, 6, 2232-2245.
1992
Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1992: Influence
of Global SST on GCM simulations of the Northern Hemisphere Monsoon Circulations
of 1987 and 1988. Report of the Monsoon Numerical Experimentation Group
Workshop on Interannual and Intraseasonal Variability of Monsoons (October
21‑24, 1991), WMO, WCRP‑68, WMO/TD‑No. 470, 2.37‑2.46.
Fennessy, M. J., L. Marx, J. L. Kinter III and J. Shukla,
1992: The
influence of global SST on the 1988 U.S. Drought:
A comparison with two general circulation models. Proc. Workshop on 1988 U.S. Drought,
Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742.
Shukla, J. and M. J. Fennessy, 1992: Idealized
numerical experiments to diagnose the simulated Asian summer monsoon circulation
and rainfall. Report of the Monsoon Numerical
Experimentation Group Workshop on Interannual and Intraseasonal Variability
of Monsoons (October 21‑24,
1991), WMO, WCRP‑68, WMO/TD‑No. 470, 2.153‑2.157.
1991
Carton, J. A. and J. Shukla, ÒPredictability
of the tropical Atlantic Ocean.Ó
Journal of Marine Systems
1
(1991): 299‑313.
Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, ÒComparison
of the impact of the 1982/83 and 1986/88 Pacific SST anomalies on time-mean
prediction of atmospheric circulation and rainfall.Ó Journal of Climate
4 (1991): 407‑423.
Goswami, B. N. and J. Shukla, 1991: Predictability
and variability of a coupled ocean‑atmosphere model. Journal
of Marine Systems, 1, 217‑228.
Goswami, B. N. and J. Shukla, 1991: Predictability
of a coupled ocean‑atmosphere model.
Journal of Climate, 3, 2‑22.
Kinter III, J. L., J. Shukla, L. Marx and B. Doty,
1991: Relationship between GCM
forecast errors and seasonal variability:
Tropical heating and extratropical circulation. IUGG XX General
Assembly, IAMAP Symposium on Large-Scale Atmospheric Flow and Variability
(Vienna, Austria, 19-23 August, 1991).
IAMAP, 1991.
Nobre, C. A., P. J. Sellers and J. Shukla, 1991: Amazonian
deforestation and regional climate change.
Journal of Climate, 4, 957‑988.
Shukla, J. ÒShort
term climate variability and predictions.Ó Climate Change: Science,
Impacts and Policy. Eds. J. Jager and H.L. Ferguson. New York: Cambridge
University Press, 1991. 203-210.
Shukla, J., M. J. Fennessy, J. L. Kinter III, L. Marx
and E. K, Schneider, 1991: Seasonal predictions with the COLA GCM. Proc.
ICTP/WMO Technical Conference on Long-Range Weather Forecasting Research, 249.
Xue, Y., P. J. Sellers, J. Kinter and J. Shukla, 1991:
A
simplified model for global climate studies. Journal of Climate, 4, 345‑364.
Xue, Y., and J. Shukla. ÒA
Study of the Mechanism and Impact of Biosphere Feedback on the African Climate.Ó
Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology and the Special Session on Hydrometeorology.
September 10-13, 1991.
1990
Kinter, J. L. and J. Shukla, 1990: The
global hydrologic and energy cycles: Suggestions for studies in the pre-GEWEX
period. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 71, 181-189.
Shukla, J., C. A. Nobre and P. J. Sellers, 1990: Amazonia
deforestation and climate change. Science,
247, 1322‑1325.
1989
Kinter, J. L. and J. Shukla, 1989:
Reanalysis
for TOGA (Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere). Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society, 70, 1422‑1427.
Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1989:
Index
of activity of the monsoon trough over India. MAUSAM, 40, 247‑258.
Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1989: Main
features of the westward‑moving summer monsoon low pressure systems
which form over the Indian regions during the summer monsoon season and their
relation to the monsoon rainfall. MAUSAM, 40, 137‑152.
Sato, N., P. J. Sellers, D. A. Randall, E. K. Schneider,
J. Shukla, J. L. Kinter III, Y.‑T. Hou and E. Albertazzi, 1989: Effects
of implementing the simple biosphere model (SiB) in a general circulation
model. Journal of
Atmospheric Science, 46, 2757‑2782.
Shukla, J., 1989: Tropical
forecasting: Predictability perspective. Australian Meteorological Magazine, 37, 141‑153.
1988
Bengtsson, L. and J. Shukla, 1988:
Integration of space and in situ observation to study climate change.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 69, 1130-1143.
Charney, J. G., E. Kalnay, E. K. Schneider and J. Shukla,
1988:
A study of the dynamics of the ITCZ in a symmetric atmosphere-ocean model.
(Joint IUTAM/IUGG Symposium on Monsoon Dynamics (5-9 December 1977), New
Delhi, India, NASA Technical Memo. 86220, 20pp.
Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1988: Impact
of the 1982‑3 and 1986‑7 Pacific SST anomalies on time mean prediction
with the GLAS GCM. Proceedings of a Workshop on Modelling
the Sensitivity and Variations of the Ocean‑Atmosphere System (11‑13 May, 1988),
ECMWF, England, World Climate Research Program Report:
WCRP‑15. (WMO/TD ‑ No. 254), Geneva, pp.
26‑44.
Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1988:
Numerical
simulation of the atmospheric response to the time‑varying El Ni–o SST
anomalies during May 1982 through October 1983.
Journal of Climate, 1, 195‑211.
Kinter, J. L., J. Shukla, L. Marx, E. Schneider, 1988:
A simulation
of the winter and summer circulation with the NMC global spectral model. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 45, 2486‑2522.
Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1988: Characteristics
of the westward‑moving summer monsoon low pressure systems over the
Indian region and their relationship with the monsoon rainfall.
Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland, College Park,
MD, USA.
Shukla, J., 1988: Predictability
of monthly mean circulation and rainfall: Part I: Classical dynamical predictability
experiments; and Part II: Influences of 1982‑83 and 1986‑87 El
Ni–o SST anomalies. Proceedings of the Workshop on Predictability
in the Medium and Extended Range (16‑18 May 1988), ECMWF, England, 251‑261.
Shukla, J., 1988: Variability
of rainfall over tropical oceans: Scientific basis and justification for
TRMM. Tropical Rainfall
Measurements. Editors: J. S. Theon and N. Fugono, A. Deepak Publishing, pp. 75‑79.
Shukla, J. and M. Fennessy, 1988: Prediction
of time-mean atmospheric circulation and rainfall:
Influence of Pacific SST anomaly. Journal
of Atmospheric Science,
45, 9‑28.
Shukla, J., D. A. Mooley and D. A. Paolino, 1988:
Long
range forecasting of summer monsoon rainfall over India. Persistent
meteo‑oceanographic anomalies and teleconnections,
Pontificale academiae scientiarum scripta varia,
69. Editors: C. Chagas and G. Puppi, Pontificia Academia
Scientiarum, pp. 147‑178.
Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 1988: A
comparison of a GCM simulation of the seasonal cycle of the atmosphere to
observations. Part I: Mean fields and the annual harmonic.
Atmosphere‑Ocean, 26, 541‑574.
Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 1988: A
comparison of a GCM simulation of the seasonal cycle of the atmosphere to
observations. Part II: Stationary waves and transient
fluctuations. Atmosphere‑Ocean,
26, 575‑607.
Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 1988: The
seasonal cycle of energetics from the GLAS/UMD Climate GCM. NASA Technical
Memo. 100714.
Sud, Y. C., J. Shukla, and Y. Mintz, ÒInfluence
of land‑surface roughness on atmospheric circulation and rainfall: A
sensitivity study with GCM.Ó Journal
of Applied Meteorology 27 (1988): 1036‑1054.
1987
Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1987:
Evaluation
of April 500 mb ridge and Darwin pressure trend as predictors for Indian monsoon
rainfall. Proceedings of the Fifth Conference
on Applied Meteorology (10‑12
March 1987), Baltimore, MD, published by AMS, 46‑48.
Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1987: Variability
and forecasting of the summer monsoon rainfall over India.
Monsoon Meteorology. Editors: C. P. Chang and T. N. Krishnamurti.
Oxford University Press, pp. 26‑59.
Shukla, J, 1987:
General
circulation modeling and the tropics. Geophysiology of Amazonia: Vegetation and Climate Interactions.
Editor: R. E. Dickinson,
John Wiley & Sons, Inc., pp. 409‑461.
Shukla, J., 1987:
Interannual
variability of monsoons. Monsoons. Editors:
Jay Fein and Pamela L. Stephens, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., pp. 399‑464.
Shukla, J., 1987:
Long
range forecasting of Indian monsoons. Science Age, November, 21‑23.
Shukla, J, 1987:
Long-range
forecasting of monsoons. Monsoons. Editors: Jay S. Fein and Pamela L. Stephens, John Wiley & Sons,
Inc., pp. 523‑547.
Shukla, J, 1987:
Numerical
simulation of atmospheric response to observed SST anomalies and oceanic response
to observed wind stress: Intercomparison of results from various GCMs. Proceedings of the Workshop on
Predictability in the Medium and Extended Range (17‑19 March 1986), ECMWF, England, pp. 205‑220.
Shukla, J. and D. A. Mooley, ÒEmpirical
prediction of the summer monsoon rainfall over India.Ó Monthly Weather
Review 115 (1987): 695‑703.
1986
Shukla, J., 1986: SST
anomalies and blocking. Advances in Geophysics, Vol. 29. Editor: R. Benzi, Academic Press, Inc., pp.
443‑452.
1985
Fennessy, M. J., L. Marx and J. Shukla, ÒGeneral
circulation model sensitivity to 1982‑83 equatorial Pacific sea surface
temperature anomalies.Ó Monthly Weather Review 113 (1985): 858‑864.
Shukla, J., 1985: Air-Sea-Land
Interactions: Global and Regional Habitability. Origins of Life, 15, Rydell Publishing Co., Holland, 353-363.
Shukla, J., 1985: Predictability.
Issues in atmospheric and oceanic modeling, Part II. Weather Dynamics. Advances in Geophysics, Vol. 28B. Editor:
S. Manabe, Academic Press, Inc., pp. 87‑122.
Shukla, J. and E. M. Rasmusson, 1985: Variability
of the tropical circulation. Proceedings
of the TOGA Conference (Paris, September 1984), WCRP Publication Series
No. 4 (WMO/TD ‑ No. 65), 1985, pp. II.24‑II.39. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva.
1984
Goswami, B. N. and J. Shukla, 1984: Quasi‑periodic
oscillations in a symmetric general circulation model.
Journal of Atmospheric
Science, 41, 20‑37.
Goswami, B. N., J. Shukla, E. K. Schneider and Y. C.
Sud, 1984: Study
of the dynamics on the intertropical convergence zone with a symmetric version
of the GLAS climate model. Journal
of Atmospheric Science, 41, 5‑19.
Gutzler, D. S. and J. Shukla, 1984: Analogs
in the wintertime 500 mb height field. Journal of
Atmospheric Science, 41, 177‑189.
Shukla, J., 1984:
Predictability
of a large atmospheric model. Predictability and Turbulence, American Institute of Physics. Editors: G. Holloway and B. J. West, pp. 449‑456.
Shukla, J., 1984:
Predictability
of time averages, Part II. The influence of the boundary forcings.
Problems and Prospects in Long and Medium Range Weather Forecasting. Editors:
D. N. Burridge and E. Kallen, Springer‑Verlag, pp. 155‑206.
1983
Chen, T. C. and J. Shukla, ÒDiagnostics
analysis and spectral energetics of a blocking event in GLAS climate model
simulation.Ó Monthly Weather Review 111 (1983): 3‑23.
Estoque, M. A., J. C. Jiing and J. Shukla, 1983: African
wave disturbances in a General Circulation Model.
Tellus, 35A, 287‑295.
Mo, K. C. and J. Shukla, 1983: Persistent
anomalies of the Southern Hemisphere circulation.
NASA Technical Memo. 84983,
pp. 139‑141.
Shukla, J., 1983: Ability
and limitations of general circulation models to simulate climate and climate
variability. Proceedings of
the Study Conference on the Physical Basis for Climate Prediction of Seasonal,
Annual and Decadal Time Scales (Sept. 13‑17, 1982), Leningrad, USSR.
WCP‑47,
pp. 97‑127.
Shukla, J., ÒComments
on ÔNatural variability and predictabilityÕ." Monthly Weather
Review 111 (1983): 581‑585.
Shukla, J., 1983: On
physical basis and feasibility of monthly and seasonal prediction with a large
GCM. Proceedings of WMO‑CAS/JAS
Expert Study Conference on Long Range Forecasting (1‑4 December, 1982),
Princeton, NJ, WMO, LRF Publication Series No.
1., pp. 142‑153.
Shukla, J. and D. S. Gutzler, 1983:
Interannual
variability and predictability of 500 mb geopotential heights over the Northern
Hemisphere.
Monthly Weather Review, 111, 1273‑1279.
Shukla, J. and K. C. Mo, 1983: Seasonal
and geographical variation of blocking. Monthly
Weather Review, 111, 388‑402.
Shukla, J. and D. A. Paolino, 1983: The
Southern Oscillation and long range forecasting
of the summer monsoon rainfall over India. Monthly
Weather Review, 111, 1830‑1837.
Shukla, J. and J. M. Wallace, 1983: Numerical
simulation of the atmospheric response to equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature
anomalies. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 40, 1613‑1630.
1982
Shukla, J., 1982: Predictability
of time averages: The influence of the boundary forcing. NASA Technical Memo. 85092,
(NTIS #8411624), pp. 63.
Shukla, J., 1982: Predictability
of the tropical atmosphere. Tropical Ocean‑Atmosphere Newsletter, November, 7‑9.
Shukla, J. and W. E. Baker, 1982: Analysis
and prediction of the monsoon flow during the summer
MONEX. Proceedings of the International Conference on Scientific
Results of the Monsoon Experiment (October, 1981), Indonesia, (published by
ICSU/WMO, Geneva) 4.3‑4.11.
Shukla, J. and Y. Mintz, ÒInfluence
of land‑surface evapotranspiration on the earth's climate.Ó Science
215 (1982): 1498‑1501.
1981
Charney, J. G. and J. Shukla, 1981: Predictability
of monsoons. Monsoon Dynamics, Editors: Sir James Lighthill and R. P. Pearce, Cambridge
University Press, pp. 99‑ 109.
Charney, J. G., J. Shukla and K. C. Mo, 1981:
Comparison
of a barotropic blocking theory with observations. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 38, 762‑779.
Chen, T. C., H. G. Marshall and J. Shukla, ÒSpectral
Analysis and diagnosis of nonlinear interactions of large-scale moving waves
at 200 mb in the GLAS general circulation model.Ó Monthly Weather Review
109 (1981): 959‑974.
Godbole, R. V. and J. Shukla, 1981: Global analysis of January and July sea
level pressure. NASA Technical Memo. 82097.
Kalnay, E., W. E. Baker and J. Shukla, 1981:
Numerical prediction of the large scale tropical flow. Proceedings of the Symposium on Meteorological Aspects of Tropical
Droughts (7‑11 December, 1981), New Delhi, India, (Published by
WMO).
Moura, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1981: On
the dynamics of droughts in northeast Brazil: Observations, theory and numerical
experiments with a general circulation model.
Journal of Atmospheric
Science, 38, 2653‑2675.
Paolino, D. and J. Shukla, 1981: Interannual
variability of monsoon rainfall and Northern Hemispheric surface pressure. Proceedings of the Symposium on Meteorological Aspects of
Tropical Droughts (7‑11 December,
1981), New Delhi, India. Edited
by R. P. Pearce. World Meteorological
Organization, pp. 41‑48
Saha, K. R., F. Sanders and J. Shukla, 1981: Westward
propagating predecessors of monsoon depressions. Monthly Weather
Review, 109, 330‑343.
Shukla, J., 1981: Dynamical predictability of monthly means. Journal of Atmospheric
Science, 38, 2547‑2572.
Shukla, J., 1981: Physical
basis for prediction of tropical droughts. Proceedings of the Symposium
on Meteorological Aspects of Tropical Droughts (7‑11 December, 1981), New Delhi, India. Edited by R. P. Pearce, World Meteorological
Organization, pp. 27‑40.
Shukla, J., 1981: Predictability
of the tropical atmosphere. NASA Technical Memo. 83829, pp 51.
Shukla, J., 1981: Structure
and dynamics of monsoon depressions: The MONEX depression (July 1979). (Invited paper) Proceedings of the FGGE/MONEX Meeting
(January, 1981), Tallahassee, Florida, p. 11.3‑11.7 (published by ICSU/WMO,
Geneva). NASA Technical
Memo. 83907,
pp. 217‑222.
Shukla, J. and Y. C. Sud, 1981:
Effect of cloud‑radiation feedback on the climate of a general circulation
model. Journal of Atmospheric Science,
38, 2337‑2353.
Shukla, J., R. Atlas and W. E. Baker, 1981:
Numerical
prediction of the monsoon depression of 5‑7 July, 1979.
Proceedings of the FGGE/MONEX Meeting (January, 1981), Tallahassee,
Florida, p. 11.3‑11.7 (published by ICSU/WMO, Geneva). NASA Technical Memo. 83907, pp. 223‑230.
Shukla, J., K. C. Mo and M. Eaton, 1981: Climatology
of blocking in the GLAS climate model. NASA Technical Memo. 83907,
pp. 207-216.
Shukla, J., D. Straus, D. Randall, Y. Sud and L. Marx,
1981: Winter and summer simulations with the GLAS climate model. NASA Technical Memo. 83866, pp. 1‑282.
Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 1981: Global
and local fluctuations of winter and summer simulations with the GLAS climate
model. NASA Technical Memo. 83907, pp. 231‑236.
Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 1981: Space‑time
spectral analysis of the GLAS model. Journal of Atmospheric
Science, 38, 902‑917.
1980
Shukla, J., Y. Sud and E. Sabatino, 1980:
Preliminary results of a January simulation with an improved version of the
GLAS model. NASA Technical Memo. 80650, pp. 121‑132.
1979
Halem, M., J. Shukla, Y. Mintz, M. L. Wu, R. Godbole,
G. Herman and Y. Sud, 1979: Comparisons
of Observed Seasonal Climate Features with a Winter and Summer Numerical Simulation
Produced with the GLAS General Circulation Model. GARP Publication
Series, 22, 207‑253.
Shukla, J., and B. Bangaru, 1979: Effect
of a Pacific SST anomaly on the circulation over North America:
A numerical experiment with the GLAS model.
GARP Publication Series,
22, 501‑518.
1978
Shukla, J., 1978: CISK‑barotropic‑baroclinic
instability and the growth of monsoon depressions. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 35, 495‑508.
1977
Charney, J. G. and J. Shukla, 1977: Predictability of
Monsoons. Presented at the Joint IUTAM/IUGG Symposium on Monsoon Dynamics (5‑9
December, 1977), New Delhi, India.
Shukla, J. 1977:
Barotropic‑baroclinic
instability of mean zonal wind during summer monsoon. Pure and Applied
Geophysics, 115, 1449‑1462.
Shukla, J. and
B. N. Misra, 1977: Relationships
between sea surface temperature and wind speed over the Central Arabia Sea,
and monsoon rainfall over India. Monthly Weather Review,
105, 998‑1002.
1976
Hahn, D. and J. Shukla, 1976: An
apparent relationship between Eurasia snow cover and Indian monsoon rainfall.
Journal of Atmospheric Science, 33, 2461-2463.
Shukla, J., 1976: Reply. Journal of Atmospheric
Science, 253‑255.
1975
Shukla, J., 1975:
Effect of Arabian sea‑surface temperature anomaly on Indian summer monsoon:
A numerical experiment with GFDL model. Journal
of Atmospheric Science, 32, 503‑511.
1974
Shukla, J. and K. R. Saha, 1974: Computation
of non‑divergent stream functions and irrational velocity potential
from the observed winds. Monthly Weather Review, 102, 419‑425.
1973
Phillips, N. A. and J. Shukla, 1973: On
the strategy of combining coarse and find grid meshes in numerical weather
prediction. Journal of Applied
Meteorology, 12, 736‑770.
1972
Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1972: Concurrent
association between 700 mb, 5 day mean contour patterns and 5 day rainfall
anomaly over India during July. Indian Journal of
Meteorology and Geophysics, 23, 29‑34.
Shukla, J., 1972: Barotropic Model, A Review. Indian Journal of Meteorology and Geophysics, 23, 201‑206.
1971
Shukla, J., 1971: On
the numerical solution of diabatic quasi‑geostrophic omega equations.
Indian Journal of Meteorology
and Geophysics, 22, 35‑46.
Shukla, J. and P. P. Sajnani, 1971: A
note on the magnitude of horizontal divergence. Indian Journal of
Meteorology and Geophysics, 22, 235‑236.
1970
Shukla, J. and K. R. Saha, 1970:
Application of nondivergent barotropic model to predict flow patterns in the
Indian region. Journal
of Met. Soc. of Japan, 48, 405‑410.
1969
Shukla, J., 1969: An
iterative scheme for diagnostic studies: A proposal. Indian Journal
of Meteorology and Geophysics,
20, 119‑122.
Shukla, J., 1969: A
numerical experiment on a disturbance in the tropical easterlies.
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan,
47, 109‑114.
Shukla, J., 1969: An
objective method of quantitative estimation of abnormal pentad rainfall over
Ratnagiri during July. Indian Journal of Meteorology and Geophysics, 20, 59‑60.
Shukla, J., 1969: A
numerical experiment on disturbances in the topical easterlies. Proceedings
of the WMO/IUGG Symp. On NWP, Tokyo (26 Nov. Ð 4 Dec., 1968), pp III Ð 109,
IV Ð 63, IV Ð 64.
1968
Shukla, J. and R. Suryanarayana, 1968: Forecasting
five‑day mean contours of 700 mb using empirical influence co‑efficients.
Indian Journal of Meteorology
and Geophysics, 19, 407‑412.
Shukla, J., S. K. Das and S. S. Kutival, 1968: Forecasting of pentad rainfall anomaly
over Allahabad during the month of July.
Scientific Report No. 58, India Meteorological Department.
Shukla, J., S. K. Das and A. Sethumadhavan, 1968: Forecasting pentad rainfall anomaly
over coastal Andhra Pradesh in July. Indian Journal of Meteorology and Geophysics, 19, 445‑448.
1967
Shukla, J., 1967: An
objective method of forecasting pentad rainfall anomaly in Konkan coast during
July. Indian Journal of Meteorology and Geophysics, 18, 363-366.